This is an interesting subject to tackle because it doubles as a simple math lesson. The more you know, the more likely you are to succeed at gambling. We’ll start out with the answer up front for those of you who just need the info, and then continue with the math below.
The frequency of ties in Casino War varies based on the number of decks in play:
Single Deck Game 1 in 17 hands 5.88% of the time
Double Deck Game 1 in 14.71 hands 6.80% of the time
3 Deck Game 1 in 14.09 hands 7.10% of the time
4 Deck Game 1 in 13.8 hands 7.25% of the time
5 Deck Game 1 in 13.63 hands 7.34% of the time
6 Deck Game 1 in 13.52 hands 7.40% of the time
7 Deck Game 1 in 13.44 hands 7.44% of the time
8 Deck Game 1 in 13.39 hands 7.47% of the time
How to Figure This Out on Your Own
I was re-writing my Casino War page this morning and wanted to know how often a tie occurs in Casino War. I couldn’t find it anywhere on the internet, so I had to figure it out on my own. Fortunately, it’s an easy calculation.
You figure this out by starting with what you know. In a single deck of cards, there are 52 cards. Four of those cards are of the same value (there are four aces, four kings, four queens and so on).
We want to know how often a tie will occur, so think about how it happens. You take one card out of the deck and give it to the player. Let’s say it’s a king. Now we need to figure out the odds of the next card also being a king.
Well, what we know now is that there are 51 cards remaining in the deck. Of those cards, 3 are kings. So you know that 3 of 51 cards will result in a tie. In other words, the odds are 3 in 51. Divide 51 by 3 to get a more sensible answer: 1 in 17.
You can find the percentage by dividing 1 by 17. This will give you 0.0588. Move the decimal two places to the right and you have your percentage: 5.88%.
The process is the same for a six-deck game but the numbers are a little different. You know there are 312 cards in a stack of six decks. You also know there are 24 aces, 24 kings, 24 queens and so on.
Take a card out and give it to the player. This time it’s an ace. Now we only have 311 cards left. We also know that there are 23 aces remaining in the deck. That means the odds are 23 in 311. Divide 311 by 23 to get your final answer: 1 in 13.52.
If you want to know the percentage, divide 1 by 13.52. That gives us 7.40%.
Why is this good to know?
It will never hurt you to be comfortable with gambling math, even at the most basic level. When you understand simple concepts like the one we covered today, you have an easier time understanding more complex concepts.
Even basic concepts like this one can come in handy. For example, you could use the information presented above to determine if it is profitable to place a bet on the tie outcome at your local casino.
Let’s pretend you walk into your local gambling establishment and see that they are offering a limited-time 13:1 payout on the tie wager in Casino War.
(Note: the tie wager is just a bet that you and the dealer will tie on the next hand. If you win, you get a payout. It usually pays 10 to 1.)
You mosey over to the Casino War table and see that they have six decks in play. Using the above calculations, you know that a tie will occur roughly once every 13.5 hands. Compare that to the 13:1 payout offer and you see that it’s almost a good bet, but still in favor of the casino.
I would think about it like this: If I wager $1 on the tie bet every hand, I’ll have to wager a total of $13.50 before getting a $13 payout (over the long run). It’s better than the standard 10 to 1 payout, but it’s just not quite there yet.
You can also use the above information to see why people always tell you to play Casino War with as few decks as possible. As you add more decks, the odds of a tie increase. In Casino War, the entire house advantage comes into play during ties. Fewer decks = fewer ties = better for the player.
Tagged with: casino war